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Bloomberg News
Prediction markets get a passing grade on the midterms
The midterms on Tuesday were a chance for the markets to prove their claimed status as “truth machines” superior to other information sources. How did they do? “I’d give the markets a B,” said economics professor Koleman Strumpf, who studies prediction markets and generally advocates for their utility. While they were directionally correct in predicting Democratic victories on Election Day, they missed the extent of the wave, Strumpf says: “The real big takeaway message—that this was a kind of historic win—I think you’d be hard-pressed to have concluded that from the market.”
November 5, 2026
Quartz
Kalshi and Polymarket claim 98% accuracy in calling midterm races
Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University who studies prediction markets, gave the markets a B, according to Bloomberg. He said the markets pointed the right way but underestimated how large the Democratic wave would be.
November 6, 2026
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