Midterm election results in North Carolina could significantly influence the state and shape the national political landscape, says John Dinan, a Wake Forest University professor of political science.

Dinan explains what North Carolinians will see on the ballot, the importance of key candidate contests and the potential ripple effects on the state and federal levels. With control of the U.S. Senate on the line, North Carolina remains a major focal point for national politics.

He also shares insights on the historical midterm trends and the impact of redistricting.

North Carolina’s three proposed state constitutional amendments—regarding photo ID for mail-in voting, income tax caps and property taxes—are similar to many other measures presented for a vote this year in states across the country.

Dinan, whose research focuses on state politics, is the author of several books, including State Constitutional Politics: Governing by Amendment in the American States and The American State Constitutional Tradition, and he writes an annual entry on state constitutional developments for The Book of the States. He is teaching a course this fall on the U.S. electoral system.

What determines the outcome of mid-term elections? 

Midterm elections have their own dynamic, which is different from presidential elections. Midterm elections are almost entirely driven by people’s approval or disapproval of the sitting president, the economy and the general state of affairs. That is simply the way that midterms work. That means in North Carolina, the wind is at the backs of the Democratic candidates, and it’s a challenging time for Republican candidates. That’s also true generally around the country. One sign of how challenging it is for the president’s party in midterm elections: Over a 160-year period—since the Civil War—the president’s party has lost seats in the House of Representatives in midterm elections in all but three of those years: 1934, 1998 and 2002. The only question in midterm elections is whether the out-of-power party will have a relatively good year or have a really, really good year. Democrats could actually sweep in and win some races that they wouldn’t ordinarily be expected to win. 

Q: What North Carolina races are of particular interest and importance? 

A: There’s no doubt that the top of the ticket race in North Carolina is the Senate race. It has been nearly two decades since Democrats have won a U.S. Senate race in North Carolina. This is a year Democrats believe they have a chance to actually break that streak. It’s important for North Carolina, but it’s also important nationally because, of course, at the crux of the question for the midterm elections is which party will control the House of Representatives and which party will control the Senate. Democrats nationally hope that Roy Cooper will give them one of the four seats they need to possibly reclaim a majority in the Senate. So North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat is important for North Carolina voters to decide who will represent the state as its second senator, but it also plays a big role in whether Democrats or Republicans will hold a majority in the Senate after this year’s election.

The other race that’s naturally going to get a lot of attention is for one of the state Supreme Court seats. Currently, Republicans hold a five-to-two advantage on the North Carolina Supreme Court. This will not change control of the state Supreme Court this year, but will set things up for future years to see whether Democrats are in a better position to reclaim a majority on the state Supreme Court. That’s important for how redistricting maps survive or fall, the scope of abortion rights and whether school choice programs stand or fall. In addition, all seats in the state legislature are on the ballot this year.

Q: How will what happens in North Carolina affect national politics?

A: As Democrats look at the possibility that they could reclaim a majority of the U.S. Senate, they are seeing the North Carolina Senate race as one of the possible four seats that they would need to reclaim a majority. In fact, in some Democratic quarters, they actually view the North Carolina Senate seat as their most likely pickup at this point, and see a win in North Carolina as essential if they hold any chance of actually reclaiming a majority of the U.S. Senate. North Carolina is one of a small group of states where the parties are relatively evenly matched and therefore, there’s a chance of either party winning. As a long-term trend, North Carolina voters have been willing to cast ballots for members of one party for some offices and, on the same ballot, cast a vote for members of another party in the same election year. Split ticket voting is a notable feature of North Carolina politics.

Q: What role is redistricting playing in North Carolina and nationwide?

A: Redistricting always plays an important role in determining the competitiveness of districts and which parties have an advantage. Of the 435 seats in the US House of Representatives, fewer than one in 10 of those are usually competitive or contested in any way in any given year. What is particularly notable for the 2026 cycle is the incredible flurry around the country of mid-decade redistricting and mid-decade redrawing of lines. Usually, district lines are redrawn once at the beginning of each decade after the census numbers come out and remain in place until the next census. But not this election cycle. North Carolina was one of a number of states that redrew congressional district lines in the middle of the decade. North Carolina’s redraw affected two congressional districts in the eastern part of the state. This effort by the Republican-led North Carolina legislature was intended to increase the Republican share of North Carolina’s House delegates to 11 of 14 districts.

Q: Why are North Carolina voters seeing three constitutional amendments on the ballot, and what would they do? 

A: Unlike the U.S. Constitution, state constitutions are amended quite frequently. To see three amendments on the North Carolina ballot is a little more than we see in an average year, but it’s actually not as many amendments as we’ve seen in other years. If each of these amendments passes, residents would not actually see any immediate effect:

• Absentee Voting: Entrenching in the Constitution the legal requirement that voters include a photocopy of their photo ID when mailing an absentee ballot.
• Income Tax: Capping income taxes to no more than three and a half percent so that going forward, if there was any thought of raising income taxes beyond their current amount, that could not be done.
• Property Tax: Directing the legislature to set up a process for capping and limiting how much property taxes could go up from year to year.

North Carolina is following trends that we see across the country in considering amendments on each of these topics: voter ID requirements and income-tax rates and property-tax limits.. 

Q: What advice do you have for voters on how to research a long ballot? 

A: I always encourage all voters to go to the North Carolina Board of Elections website, look up their name, and click on “Show Sample Ballot.” The most important thing to do is to be aware ahead of time of all the elections you could be asked to vote in. For judicial candidates, particularly for state Supreme Court and state appellate court races, there is also a voter guide on the website that gives you the opportunity to see the can