After the vote: Politics professor unpacks the post-election process
With polls showing a tight presidential race that could come down to outcomes in North Carolina and several other swing states, Politics Professor John Dinan provides insights about what may happen following election day. Dinan, whose research focuses on state politics, is currently teaching a course called “Parties, Voters and Elections.” He is a leading national expert on state constitutions.
Q. When will we know the winner of the 2024 presidential election?
A. It will probably take less time to determine the winner this year than four years ago. Because the 2020 election took place during COVID, a record number of ballots were cast by mail that year, and it took more time than usual to count them. This year, votes cast by mail are returning to usual levels in most states, allowing a quicker tabulation. But if vote returns for Trump and Harris on election night are running as evenly as pre-election polls are predicting, especially in battleground states, the outcome could remain in doubt throughout election night and into the next day. It is important to be clear, though, that when television networks “call” the winner of various states and the winner of the entire election, this is not an official determination. A number of steps have to be taken in the several weeks after election day before outcomes are officially certified in each state, and even this is just the start of the process of awarding and counting each state’s electoral votes.
Q. What is the role of the Electoral College and how does the system work?
A. Although television networks on election night will keep a running total of votes cast for Trump and Harris, these national popular vote totals will not determine the winner, which is actually determined by the electoral college system. Each of the 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, is allocated a certain number of electoral votes, based on the state’s population, adjusted after each census. North Carolina now has 16 electoral votes, a slight increase from the last election. Electoral votes are awarded in 48 states on a winner-take-all-basis to the candidate who wins more popular votes across the state. In two states, Maine and Nebraska, electoral votes are awarded in part based on the popular vote in each congressional district, which can lead to these states’ electoral votes being split between candidates. To win the presidency, a candidate must win a majority (270) of the total number of 538 electoral votes. Almost always, the same candidate wins the national popular vote and in the electoral college, but on three clear occasions these have not aligned: once in the 19th century (in 1888) and twice in the 21st century (in 2000 and 2016).
Q. What important changes have taken place in election law, whether nationally or in North Carolina, ahead of the 2024 election?
A. Several state laws are worth highlighting, including North Carolina’s photo-ID requirement, which was enacted more than a decade ago but was targeted by numerous state and federal lawsuits and takes effect for the first time in a presidential election this year. Another North Carolina law moves up the day when absentee ballots must be returned, stipulating that absentee ballots, other than from military and overseas voters, must be received by the time polls close on election day in order to be counted. Most recently, the state board of elections and general assembly responded to the devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene by taking steps to make voting even more accessible for residents of 25 counties in the western part of the state.
Also of note is the federal Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022, passed in response to developments and controversies after the 2020 election and for the purpose of bringing more clarity to how electoral votes are counted. As this law makes clear, states cannot change their method of allocating electoral votes after election day. This federal law also makes clear, in the event that there was any previous uncertainty, that the vice president’s role in counting electoral votes as part of the process that takes place in Congress on January 6 is entirely “ministerial,” and does not envision any discretion being exercised. Finally, this federal law raises the bar for members of Congress to object to the validity of a state’s electoral votes. It is no longer enough for objections to be lodged by a single House member and Senator; objections will now need the support of one-fifth of the members of both houses before they can be considered.
