NC Elections: WFU politics professor John Dinan available

Wake Forest University politics professor John Dinan says several races in Tuesday’s North Carolina midterm elections will be worth watching. Outcomes of state house and senate races could significantly influence policymaking and judicial race winners could shift the balance of power on the state’s highest court.

Dinan’s research focuses on state politics and state constitutions. He is the author of several books, including State Constitutional Politics: Governing by Amendment in the American States and The American State Constitutional Tradition, and an annual review of state constitutional developments in the 50 states, as well as numerous articles on state and federal politics.

Dinan is closely following the election and can provide context and comment on the following aspects of the 2022 elections:

North Carolina General Assembly: “Republicans currently hold majorities in the state house and senate – but are two seats short in the senate and three seats short in the house of commanding supermajorities that would enable them to override gubernatorial vetoes and enact policies opposed by Governor Roy Cooper. The 2022 elections, where all 120 house seats and all 50 senate seats are on the ballot, will determine whether Republicans gain supermajority status in one or both chambers, with significant implications for Governor Cooper’s continued ability to influence budgeting and policymaking during the remainder of his term.”

North Carolina Supreme Court: “Democratic-backed judges currently maintain a four-three advantage over Republican-backed judges on the state supreme court, but two of the Democratic seats are on the ballot in 2022. If Republicans win either of these races this would shift the balance of power on the state’s highest court, with significant implications for the fate of education policies and school funding, redistricting and elections policies, and abortion rights, along with a number of other policies.”

Voter turnout: “Turnout in midterm elections has historically lagged well behind turnout in presidential elections, both in North Carolina and around the country. Yet 53 percent of eligible voters turned out to vote in North Carolina in the most recent midterm election, in 2018. Although this is still well below the turnout rate in the 2020 presidential election, it is the second highest turnout for a midterm election in the state’s recent history (behind only the 1990 midterm election, which saw a turnout rate of just under 62 percent). Moreover, turnout during the early voting period in 2022 is running ahead of early voting four years ago, signaling the possibility of another higher-than-usual turnout rate for a North Carolina midterm election. Unaffiliated voters will also play a big role in determining whether Republicans or Democrats do better in the 2022 elections, and so a lot of attention will naturally be paid in the lead-up to election day on whether unaffiliated voters are breaking heavily toward one party.”